
Will Dan Dascalescu be happier in 2025 than 2024?
Will Dan Dascalescu be happier in 2025 than 2024?
0
1002026
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will the average global temperature in 2025 exceed 2024?
32% chance
Will I be happier in 2025 than 2024?
45% chance
Will I be significantly happier in 2024?
39% chance
Will I think spring 2025 was a better time for me personally than winter 2024-2025?
70% chance
Will Alexey Guzey be happier by EOY 2024 than EOY 2023?
48% chance
Will I conclude, at the end of 2025, that this year has been better than 2024?
47% chance
Will I believe 2025 is a bigger news year than 2024?
68% chance
Will Daniel Larson be back in 2025?
50% chance
Will 2024 be better than 2023?
70% chance
Will Dillon Danis be relevant on 2025, compared to august 2023?