Resolves to my subjective impression of how much buzz news cycles in 2025 generate compared to 2024.
On the one hand, 2024 was an election year, which makes it a presumptive favorite. On the other hand, there all sorts of newsy tailwinds going into 2025: a possible H5N1 pandemic, the antics of the incoming Trump administration, more AI developments, major geopolitical conflicts in Russia/Ukraine + Middle East, etc.
For comparison, purposes I'd say 2020 > 2024 > 2023 in terms of newsiness.
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Ukraine still close to status quo.
Gaza supposedly winding down but with the jury still out; definitely more news than 2024 but less than 2023 on that front.
No US / Venezuela war yet, but would probably resolve Yes if there were boots on the ground.
Epstein files coming out but very unlikely to have meaningful consequences for teflon Don this year.
Shutdown ended in, as others have said, a whimper.
Charlie Kirk murder was pretty huge, wodner how it charted in the media compared to the attempts on Trump.
Bombing of Iranian nuclear sites was huge, even though it didn't escalate further.
Liberation Day and tariffs generally started big but have turned into a slow burn due to partisan media and the de jure vs de facto numbers.
Sudan has gotten worse, but still is only getting a tiny fraction of the media coverage you'd hope for.
AI has stagnated in terms of mainstream press. Neither a breakthrough model for normies nor a bubble burst this year so far.
Stuff like Mamdani, though close to my heart, was just a blip in international news.
National Guard and ICE crackdowns have been pretty big in local as well as national media.
Thailand's coup didn't register big in US media but maybe it was big elsewhere?
Overall, it feels like 2025 has gotten close but is still slightly behind. Selling my position as we still have 1.5 months left!
For 2024 we have:
Trump assassination attempt no. 1
Trump assassination attempt no. 2
Trump reelected
Decisive tide turned in Ukraine
Crippling of Hezbollah
Fall of Damascus
Iran bombing Israel
ICC issuing arrest warrant for Netanyahu
Downing of Azerbaijan Air
Crash on takeoff in South Korea
Iran downing its own passenger plane
South Korean coup attempt
Annulling of Romanian election
Challenge of Georgian election results
German govt collapse
French elections
Global rate cuts
A pandemic or world war would match the above, but it’s a tough act to follow.
@MalachiteEagle perhaps. But it seems unlikely for it to top the unexpected conclusion to the Syrian civil war.
A ceasefire would be expected. It happened post-2014, almost happened in 2022, and is the obvious choice for 2025.
A full Ukraine rout would be shocking, but not necessarily all that surprising. Russia is winning the war of attribution at the line of contact. If that line crumbles, we could imagine sweeping changes in control.
A major Ukrainian counterattack would be surprising, perhaps more than even HTS taking Damascus. The same would go for serious Russian concessions (like ceding Crimea).
For AI, SORA and its various Chinese counterparts released in 2024. Geopolitically we also saw China surpass the US in some respects with the creation of Deepseek. Lower newsworthiness for sure, but it’s a few runs on the board.