Will I believe 2025 is a bigger news year than 2024?
43
10kṀ15k
2026
64%
chance

Resolves to my subjective impression of how much buzz news cycles in 2025 generate compared to 2024.

On the one hand, 2024 was an election year, which makes it a presumptive favorite. On the other hand, there all sorts of newsy tailwinds going into 2025: a possible H5N1 pandemic, the antics of the incoming Trump administration, more AI developments, major geopolitical conflicts in Russia/Ukraine + Middle East, etc.

For comparison, purposes I'd say 2020 > 2024 > 2023 in terms of newsiness.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy