Resolves to my subjective impression of how much buzz news cycles in 2025 generate compared to 2024.
On the one hand, 2024 was an election year, which makes it a presumptive favorite. On the other hand, there all sorts of newsy tailwinds going into 2025: a possible H5N1 pandemic, the antics of the incoming Trump administration, more AI developments, major geopolitical conflicts in Russia/Ukraine + Middle East, etc.
For comparison, purposes I'd say 2020 > 2024 > 2023 in terms of newsiness.
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On June 13, Israel launched a barrage of strikes, hitting dozens of nuclear, military, and infrastructure sites across Iran, including the country’s main nuclear facility in Natanz.
During the 12-day conflict, Israel also attacked residential neighbourhoods, killing several nuclear scientists and military commanders. Iran retaliated with hundreds of ballistic missiles against Israeli cities.
On June 22, the situation escalated when the United States joined the attacks, bombing three nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
In September, Israel carried out an unprecedented air strike on Doha, targeting Hamas leaders who were meeting to discuss a US‑backed ceasefire deal, killing a Qatari security official and others
...
Bitcoin surged to new heights in 2025, driven by institutional inflows and the maturation of crypto ETFs in the US.
President Trump positioned himself as the “crypto president,” and propelled family crypto ventures and the broader sector into the mainstream. He overturned the US Securities and Exchange Commission's crackdown on crypto companies, rewarding those pro-crypto executives and firms who donated millions in the 2024 election cycle to support candidates aligned with their agenda.
On October 6, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,080, marking a defining moment for the digital asset, before reminding investors how quickly momentum can reverse as it finishes the year at $88,400.
...
2025 was the year of an extraordinary burst of AI models, marking a "boom" sensation in the field. It began with the opensource DeepSeek model, thousands of music models, picture generation revolution, , and ended with the release of Claude's sensational web capabilities. Alongside these breakthroughs, the realistic Sora 2 videos and the extremely capable GEMINI 3.0 deep thinking model - made year of explosion in AI. Additionally, ChatGPT saw a remarkable leap in abilities
Ukraine still close to status quo.
Gaza supposedly winding down but with the jury still out; definitely more news than 2024 but less than 2023 on that front.
No US / Venezuela war yet, but would probably resolve Yes if there were boots on the ground.
Epstein files coming out but very unlikely to have meaningful consequences for teflon Don this year.
Shutdown ended in, as others have said, a whimper.
Charlie Kirk murder was pretty huge, wodner how it charted in the media compared to the attempts on Trump.
Bombing of Iranian nuclear sites was huge, even though it didn't escalate further.
Liberation Day and tariffs generally started big but have turned into a slow burn due to partisan media and the de jure vs de facto numbers.
Sudan has gotten worse, but still is only getting a tiny fraction of the media coverage you'd hope for.
AI has stagnated in terms of mainstream press. Neither a breakthrough model for normies nor a bubble burst this year so far.
Stuff like Mamdani, though close to my heart, was just a blip in international news.
National Guard and ICE crackdowns have been pretty big in local as well as national media.
Thailand's coup didn't register big in US media but maybe it was big elsewhere?
Overall, it feels like 2025 has gotten close but is still slightly behind. Selling my position as we still have 1.5 months left!
For 2024 we have:
Trump assassination attempt no. 1
Trump assassination attempt no. 2
Trump reelected
Decisive tide turned in Ukraine
Crippling of Hezbollah
Fall of Damascus
Iran bombing Israel
ICC issuing arrest warrant for Netanyahu
Downing of Azerbaijan Air
Crash on takeoff in South Korea
Iran downing its own passenger plane
South Korean coup attempt
Annulling of Romanian election
Challenge of Georgian election results
German govt collapse
French elections
Global rate cuts
A pandemic or world war would match the above, but it’s a tough act to follow.
@MalachiteEagle perhaps. But it seems unlikely for it to top the unexpected conclusion to the Syrian civil war.
A ceasefire would be expected. It happened post-2014, almost happened in 2022, and is the obvious choice for 2025.
A full Ukraine rout would be shocking, but not necessarily all that surprising. Russia is winning the war of attribution at the line of contact. If that line crumbles, we could imagine sweeping changes in control.
A major Ukrainian counterattack would be surprising, perhaps more than even HTS taking Damascus. The same would go for serious Russian concessions (like ceding Crimea).
For AI, SORA and its various Chinese counterparts released in 2024. Geopolitically we also saw China surpass the US in some respects with the creation of Deepseek. Lower newsworthiness for sure, but it’s a few runs on the board.