
Will I believe 2025 is a bigger news year than 2024?
43
10kṀ15k2026
64%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to my subjective impression of how much buzz news cycles in 2025 generate compared to 2024.
On the one hand, 2024 was an election year, which makes it a presumptive favorite. On the other hand, there all sorts of newsy tailwinds going into 2025: a possible H5N1 pandemic, the antics of the incoming Trump administration, more AI developments, major geopolitical conflicts in Russia/Ukraine + Middle East, etc.
For comparison, purposes I'd say 2020 > 2024 > 2023 in terms of newsiness.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will I conclude, at the end of 2025, that this year has been better than 2024?
50% chance
Will I be happier in 2025 than 2024?
45% chance
Will AI-related news in 2025 have a bigger media impact than covid19-related news had in 2020?
15% chance
Will I watch more movies in theatres in 2025 than I did in 2024?
47% chance
What will be true about 2025's Time Person of the Year?
Will 2025 be a big year for jazz?
20% chance
Will Q1 of 2024 be the last quarter in which the news is not entirely full of AI drama until 2030?
4% chance
Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026?
31% chance
Will 2028 be a scarier election season than 2024 by my judgement ?
37% chance
Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025, 2026 or 2027?
56% chance