Based on year end results of Ipsos Consumer Tracker.

Ipsos uses the consumer tracker to reflect back on the year. I will primarily look at the "me personally" category in response to the question "Thinking back over the last 12 months, how would you rate how this year went for each of the following, on a scale 1 to 10 where 1 means it was not good at all, and 10 means it was an extremely good year?". The mean response for 2023 on "me personally" was 6.3, up 0.4 from where US consumers rated 2022.

The other categories include "my immediate family", "my job", "my community" and "the country".

If "me personally" scores higher than 6.3, then 2024 was better than 2023 and this market resolves to yes under the condition that none of the other categories declined by 0.5 or more. If "me personally" is flat or lower, or any of the other categories declined by 0.5 or more, this market resolves to no.