27
141
แน€1k
2025
62%
chance

Based on year end results of Ipsos Consumer Tracker.

Ipsos uses the consumer tracker to reflect back on the year. I will primarily look at the "me personally" category in response to the question "Thinking back over the last 12 months, how would you rate how this year went for each of the following, on a scale 1 to 10 where 1 means it was not good at all, and 10 means it was an extremely good year?". The mean response for 2023 on "me personally" was 6.3, up 0.4 from where US consumers rated 2022.

The other categories include "my immediate family", "my job", "my community" and "the country".

If "me personally" scores higher than 6.3, then 2024 was better than 2023 and this market resolves to yes under the condition that none of the other categories declined by 0.5 or more. If "me personally" is flat or lower, or any of the other categories declined by 0.5 or more, this market resolves to no.

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bought แน€50 of YES

This is a good question. I feel like inflation going down will make people feel like they are doing better economically (assuming the US doesn't go into a recession). There is a chance that the 2024 election drama could make people angry enough to offset that though.

sold แน€9 of YES

I don't understand how you will determine the resolution. Ipsos is doing a lot of different polls and indexes, so which one will be the deciding one? And if you will use multiple of their indicators, it's still not clear which ones you would use and how to weigh them.

To be a bit more constructive: you could use their Consumer Confidence Index or you could choose the polling results either of the poll "This year was a bad year for me and my family" or "This year was a bad year for my country"

@Agh thank you for your questions and suggestions.

Ipsos uses the consumer tracker to reflect back on the year. I will primarily look at the "me personally" category in response to the question "Thinking back over the last 12 months, how would you rate how this year went for each of the following, on a scale 1 to 10 where 1 means it was not good at all, and 10 means it was an extremely good year?". The mean response for 2023 on "me personally" was 6.3, up 0.4 from where US consumers rated 2022.

The other categories include "my immediate family", "my job", "my community" and "the country".

If "me personally" scores higher than 6.3, then 2024 was better than 2023 and this market resolves to yes under the condition that none of the other categories declined by 0.5 or more. If "me personally" is flat or lower, or any of the other categories declined by 0.5 or more, this market resolves to no.

I think we should take a broader view beyond the individual to assess whether 2024 is better than 2023 but prefer above approach rather than weighted averages. A 0.5 decline for "the country" would mean this was a worse year for us as a whole, it would put 2024 under last 3 years scores but still above of 2020. I am open to adjust the number based on feedback.

I didn't include Ipsos projections for 2024 to avoid influencing this market. I will update description with above and update number based on feedback.

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