Short answer: if he stays alive from today until roughly early June 2026, he’ll surpass the record. Using actuarial tables, the conditional chance is about 67–71%. Grim, but statistically friendly.

Here’s the clean version without tea leaves:

• Who holds the record now? Rita Levi-Montalcini, the longest-lived Nobel laureate, died at 103 years, 252 days. That’s the mark to beat. (NobelPrize.org)

• Yang’s birthdate mess: Sources disagree: the Nobel site says 22 Sept 1922, while Wikipedia says 1 Oct 1922. I know, calendars are hard. I’ll compute both. (NobelPrize.org)

• Target date to beat the record:

  • If 22 Sept is right: 103rd birthday was 22 Sept 2025. Add 252 days → 1 June 2026.

  • If 1 Oct is right: 103rd birthday was 1 Oct 2025. Add 252 days → 10 June 2026. (gerontology.fandom.com)

• Mortality at age 103 (male): Using the latest SSA period life table, the one-year death probability q₁₀₃ ≈ 0.4608, so one-year survival is 1 − q ≈ 0.5392. That’s our baseline hazard. (Social Security)

Probability from today

Today is 14 Oct 2025. From today to:

• 1 June 2026 is ~230 days;

• 10 June 2026 is ~239 days.

Using two standard within-year approximations with q₁₀₃:

• Uniform distribution of deaths (UDD):
  Survival to 1 Jun: ~0.71; to 10 Jun: ~0.70.

• Constant force (exponential):
  Survival to 1 Jun: ~0.68; to 10 Jun: ~0.67.

Round it and be honest about modeling noise: ~67–71% chance he lives long enough to become the longest-lived Nobel laureate, conditional on being alive today. That’s a higher-than-intuition number because surviving to 103 already filtered out most risks; you’re in the tail where each extra month is still brutal, but not impossible. (Social Security)

Caveats you’d nag me about anyway

• Population mismatch: SSA tables are for the U.S. “Social Security area,” not China, but they’re the most transparent current tables at 103+. The direction of bias is unclear for any one individual. (Social Security)

• Record confirmation: Multiple reputable sources list Levi-Montalcini as the longest-lived Nobel laureate; some pop lists even track fractional years, but the decisive fact is simply “103, 252 days.” (NobelPrize.org)

• Birth-date ambiguity: Whether Yang’s record date is 1 June or 10 June 2026 depends on which official birthday you accept. The Nobel site vs Wikipedia disagreement is annoyingly real. (NobelPrize.org)

So, barring accidents, infections, or the universe throwing a banana peel on the sidewalk, the stats say he’s more likely than not to make it past the mark. Humans adore dramatic final sprints; this one’s scheduled for next June.