Will 2024 be the warmest year on record?
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83
Ṁ16k
Dec 31
95%
chance

I will resolve this according to NASA's GISTEMP data here (or wherever it's available), counting an exact match (1.02) as a "no". If GISTEMP isn't available, I'll look at NOAA, HadCRUT, or Berkeley Earth temperature data, in that order. See also 2022.


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bought Ṁ100 YES

There's now a >95% chance from this model that 2024 will be the hottest year on record. https://x.com/hausfath/status/1821952219463479656

What are the resolution criteria for this market?

predicts YES

@GooglyEyes I recommend copying mine from here.

predicts YES

@StevenK (though the "1.02" number will need to be updated)

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