A market that closest in an autoregressive manner. Each market lasts one day.

Procedure:

Every day I draw a random decimal fraction (0 to 1) from random.org. Let's call that R. Then according to the following equation:

F(R, X) = (1-𝛼)R + Xβ,

where 𝛼 is the sum of all the autoregressive coefficients β, and X is a vector of the previous 4 games, encoded as 1 for yes and 0 for no. β is a vector of the corresponding coefficients of those autoregressive terms.

If F(R,X) is greater than or equal to .5, the market resolves as yes. If not, it resolves no.

If there have been less than 4 games, I will artificially not include the later terms and use the appropriate 𝛼 for the number of terms actually in use. The exception of this is the first one, which I will assume ended as yes for the first AR term. This is just to give a reason for people to participate at all.

I am capping the number of potential terms at AR(4), but some could be zero. All coefficients are less than 1 and in discrete values of .05. ie, 0, .05,.1, .15 all the way up to .9. They are decided arbitrarily by me. They must also sum to less than .9 all combined. Keep this in mind (!). If this pops off I will make more markets trying to guess the values. I will not be participating in this market.

EDIT: made first one assume one AR(1) term as yes to start with. So it's not totally random

I would also argue that this is not "non predictive", as it is trying to predict something (the coefficients)

example for non mathy people:

If previous 3 markets ended in [yes, no, yes] then beta would be [1, 0, 1]. Take random guess (say it was .35), multiply it by the sum of beta 1,2,3 and add it to Beta 1 and beta 3 (no beta 2 since that's zero). Let's say beta is [.2, .3. .1]. Then 𝛼 is .6. So...

F(.35, [1,0,1]) = (1-.6)*.35 + 1*.2 + 0*.3 + 1*.1

= .14 + .2 + .1 = .44

.44 is less than .5, so resolves no. This example is not using real betas and the full market will be 4 long not 3, so just an example. This particular market is a first one so I'm acting like the previous market was a yes and just using one coefficient/beta value. If you have any questions lmk.