Will the 'risk-free interest rate' market trade at 2% or more for at least 48 out of the last 96 hours of 2024?

Basic

Ṁ1449

Dec 31

1.5%

chance

ALL

Reference market:

https://manifold.markets/Lorxus/what-is-the-riskfree-interest-rate-2fe30d91de52

"The last 96 hours of 2024" is in Anywhere on Earth time, probably UTC-12.

Edit: barring objections filed before January 21st, the following clause replaces the old clause quoted below:

If the parent market is resolved with an answer other than NO or is closed or resolved before the end of December 30th 2024 (Anywhere on Earth), this market resolves N/A. The market is not considered trading at 2% or more while it is closed or resolved.

Old clause:

If @Lorxus resolves the parent market with an answer other than NO or resolves it in 2024 (Anywhere on Earth), this market resolves N/A.

If someone knows how to get higher precision than the % listed in the trade history tab, let me know. Otherwise I'll use the history tab to total up the amount of time for which the market rate has last been bought/sold "to X%", where X is 2% or more.

For the sake of objectivity, I won't bet on this market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

2 Comments

5 Holders

15 Trades

Sort by:

is the parent market stated to resolve after everywhere on earth went over? i fear something like the parent market resolving at midnight PST, which would by the description of this market mean this one has to resolve N/A

@April That's a good point. I was going by the market close date of the parent market (January 2nd) rather than the text of the description (new year's eve).

I'm changing the description unless people object to the change.

Related questions

Related questions