What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold Markets until 2024-12-31?
54
1kṀ110kresolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves NO on 2024-12-31, New Year's Eve of the current year.
This exists as a baseline for other yearly predictions, especially ones that effectively cannot happen - this market should trade at the same value as whether (e.g.) the Soviet Union will reform in 2024.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ201 | |
| 2 | Ṁ195 | |
| 3 | Ṁ161 | |
| 4 | Ṁ156 | |
| 5 | Ṁ138 |
People are also trading
Related questions
What is the risk-free interest rate for markets with ridiculously distant resolution dates?
2% chance
What is the discount rate on Manifold's Mana? (Part 1)
Will Manifold have real money markets with at least 1% of the active liquidity of Polymarket by end of 2025?
2% chance
What is the discount rate on Manifold's Mana? (Part 2)
Will Manifold Markets be insolvent before 2030?
15% chance
Will Manifold start charging interest on loans before 2031?
13% chance
Existential risk markets banned on Manifold before 2030
7% chance