What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold Markets until 2024-12-31?

This market resolves NO on 2024-12-31, New Year's Eve of the current year.

This exists as a baseline for other yearly predictions, especially ones that effectively cannot happen - this market should trade at the same value as whether (e.g.) the Soviet Union will reform in 2024.

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predicts YES

Why do people bet yes here?

@JimAusman Because they think people will bid it down too far and others will sell off later such that they can make a fair profit as a result.

I do it to try to attract traders who on net generate trader bonuses that I can then sink back in.

@JimAusman If you look at the balance graph of 2/3 of the biggest NO betters - @Mvem , @MichaelWheatley - their balance went to zero around new year. For them it would be strategically optimal to sell their shares in this market and reinvest them in markets where they expect the market is calibrated worse than here. At 1.4%, there are a lot of markets that are calibrated worse at New Year due to mana shortages. Personally I saw markets that were off by 4%.

The reason I've now sold my YES shares to get this market down to 1% is that I think there's a good chance that few enough NO betters will bother to do the optimal play of squeezing 1-2% extra out of the markets that actually selling off YES shares would be difficult.

There's also the more cynical argument that clearly @Lorxus thinks this is going to work, so it's worth betting YES in the expectation that they will bet it up in the future and you can sell your shares off again. So far I've made 40% profit in five days (M19) just by buying YES under 1% and selling it over 1%.

predicts NO

@dph121 FWIW I'm betting NO just because I got a big windfall and have been slowly investing it in other markets. While I do so, better to park some here to get loans on than leave it as cash.

Pedantic, but based on experience: is this "risk-free rate" conditional on the continued functionality and existence of Manifold?

predicts YES

@ClubmasterTransparent I... guess? Inasmuch as if Manifold Markets abruptly got vaporized by aliens or something then it'd presumably effectively resolve N/A? If you want to set up a market on whether this will resolve at all... probably there'd be no point in that because most of the universes where it fails to resolve are either ones where I behave badly or MM ceases to exist.

predicts YES

Wow, there's a lot of you who think you can't do better than 1% yearly returns! I'm genuinely kinda surprised and would encourage you to believe in yourselves more.

@Lorxus There is the risk of NO betters forgetting they have shares here they could sell and the risk of forgetting/not being able to sell your own shares.

Just for clarity, I've created this derivative market.

predicts YES

@dph121 I have already written off my YES shares as a loss.

Interesting market!

One thing that people underestimate, IMO, is that it's not so easy to find truly risk free markets . Who's to say that some random market hasn't been bet down to 1% by a single user that misread the criteria, or some other technical error in that vein? This kind of mistake can even be amplified by groupthink, as people blindly follow others into their mistakes.

I'd say there's easily a 1-2% base rate of such a thing happening. In fact, when I see a market at some absurd probability like 99.7%, I'll happily bet 1 mana in the other direction.

predicts YES

@VitorBosshard It's easy to have risk-free markets if you have knowledge that is niche on Manifold, like knowing a language other than English (4%) or knowing to look for the name of a specific video game (2%).

predicts YES

@dph121 Hardly risk-free to (suppose) learn Dutch just to siphon off a few marbles of profit, I'd say.

@Lorxus That's what the word "if" is doing in my comment.

repostedpredicts YES

Come get you a tiny bit of free money!

I think you bet it down too low for an initial probability? My experience is that you can get at least 2%/month if you're careful.

Also, these kind of markets tend to underestimate the risk fee rate because it is too obviously risk free. As in some users will irrationally(?) bet it lower than other essentially risk free markets that have more indirect resolution ciriterias. So this market will only track the risk free rate as determined by users who are willing to take the lowest interest rates.

predicts NO

@SavioMak One thing to take into account, however, is the 4% per day that manifold loans you back. That’s an important factor in this I think.

predicts NO

@TonyBaloney Important, but the effect is comparatively significantly less than the irrationality of people dumping mana here. Source: I made it up by intuition

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