If you toggle the Closing filter, (either with best or hot also toggled) do you see any markets you'd like to trade on? What is the approx. ratio of markets you're interested in vs those you're not? What markets are missing/what would you like to see there?
Context: One thing sports books do really well is have recurring content that resolves quickly so that traders get feedback quickly, and they have good reason to return to the app often. Stephen thinks that we have enough of these markets on Manifold, and that we just need to surface them better. I'm not so sure, so I added the closing toggle to let us quickly scan the markets and get a feel for the ones resolving soon.
I'm not really interested in whether you like the closing button, but rather, the markets filtered by the closing button.
As a feature, I'm a big fan, & if anything I'd like 1-2 extra filters. "closing in 30 days is great", but a mid-range option like "90 days" would be great, I'm fine betting on stuff that won't resolve right away but there's a huge difference between "2 months" and "2028".
I do generally agree that Manifold is weaker at short resolving stuff than long term, because it's easier/requires less thought to make a long term market. So that's where the focus should be, although that's separate from "are there enough". High level, I think the biggest soft spot are markets with a known time they'll occur. "Will X happen in 2024" will resolve in the next 6 weeks, but it doesn't really focus people's attention. Sports, the "will Trump say X at Y rally", etc markets are strong because people know exactly when to pay attention and get the bets in.
Sports is the easiest/most consistent way to do this. I feel like there are already ~enough sports markets, but they're inconsistent/sporadic. Some more consistent, centralized, official-ish sports markets might help (so people know where to look).
Politics/AI are always the strong points. People interested in AI seem to be often bad at writing objective/meaningful/interesting questions but there's no easy fix for that. I think Manifold could be a bit stronger on general pop culture. When it's more diffuse, people aren't really in the habit of writing those questions. (E.g. last week I made one for people's sexiest man—never really took off but it's the kind of question where people don't normally think to make but people might want to bet on it once they see it).
As the question was about market contents and not the button, I'm answering again:
For me there are interesting markets in terms of making mana (usually longish term markets that will resolve soon and are overvalued), but rarely markets that are interesting to think about. However, I'm biased as I prefer longer markets, I'm more into predicting trends rather than betting on uncertain events.
While I'm not against shorter markets, it would be very difficult to make high quality short term markets that I personally would be interested in.
This might be more difficult to program, but something similar to a closing button, but where you can choose the time range it will be closing in would be fun to play with (e.g. If I want instant gratification, I could set it to 1 day). But overall, I like the option to filter by short-term-closing markets
I do like the new ability to combine the "closing in 7/30 days" filtering options with a sort option, such as sorting by liquidity. That's been on my wish list for a while!
As @Robincvgr and @ProjectVictory have said, the "Closing" button itself seems redundant (for me, it just activates the "closing in 30 days" filter). Maybe it would be clearer to extract the "closing in 7/30 days" filters out of the advanced filter/sort menu and have a new drop-down like this:
Closing any time
Closing in 30 days
Closing in 7 days
A relatively low percent of markets are ones that I want to trade on, though a bit higher than normal. When I think of closing I expect stuff that is about to close (<1 week) because I am impatient and don't really want to invest mana into a market that would close a year or more from now. As for a specific ratio its like ~1/20 or ~1/10 markets I am interested in.
Looking now, most of the options filtering by closing didn’t interest me. I prefer the closing soon option. When I filter by closing I’m usually looking for stuff that is resolving extremely soon and unlikely to change, or I’m hoping to bet on something more “instant gratification” in which case many of them are still too far off. I don’t think there were more that 5 or so markets that I bet on after a significant amount of scrolling, and that’s if you include ones I had already bet on (aka no new bet placed)
I'm not really interested in whether you like the closing button, but rather, the markets filtered by the closing button.
The feature is good, but the UX is weird.
"Closing" is not friendly terminology and doesn't mean anything to users who are less familiar with the platform. Maybe "Short term" or something else instead?
The fact that clicking the Closing button causes a non-adjacent toggle option to change seems really weird. Not sure how to fix this.