Let's say you don't sleep well for two weeks, maybe getting only a few hours of sleep per night. Following the two weeks of bad sleep how long does it take for your body to recover? Does it take more than two weeks for your sleep schedule to return to normal?
Resolves yes if provided evidence that a typical human has their sleep cycle impacted for more than two weeks following disruption to their sleep. Resolves no if it takes less than that time to return to normal.
Close date updated to 2040-01-20 11:50 pm
Related questions
Saw this literally earlier today, then stumbled onto this market.
https://twitter.com/hubermanlab/status/1605275750781046785?s=46&t=MYHKrlmJFfvG5uCkR3DIfQ
Your question interests me and I'm working on a very brief and informal literature review which I'll post here later. But I would like to point out that you need to consider what would constitute recovery. For example, let's say that your sleep patterns, subjective well-being, and brain activity returned to normal in less than two weeks, but your andrenocorticotropic hormone level remained very mildly depressed for longer than two weeks. This does not cause any reliably measurable effect on you, just the lab value is low. Would that resolve as YES or NO?
@akrasiac I am inclined to follow sleep patterns and subjective well-being. If you go back to sleeping a normal 7-8 hours per night after a week after the disruption, this would resolve NO even if there are detectable differences in hormone levels. BUT I must admit that your question may be more interesting than what I originally intended!
@ian I agree with your inclination. I ask because there are many papers in the literature like "effect of sleep deprivation on X," where X is some biochemical process that is not easily observed. Probably, bad sleep for two weeks is going to have all kinds of undetectable chemical effects that will persist for an unknowable period of time, but that's not really very interesting. What we care about is global function and subjective wellbeing.
what studies will affect the resolution of this market? when will the market be resolved - is dec 20 a mistake? how much impact counts as "normal", if it turns out that the true dynamical equations defining sleep debt has infinite impulse response? what qualifies as evidence to conclude we know the "true" dynamical equations?
@L Human studies on sleep patterns following all-nighters, and other types of sleep-depriving episodes. Dec 20 was a mistake, I changed it to 2040. I think I'll just resolve based on easily observable sleep patterns like hours slept and subjective well-being.