This market resolves to "YES" if Japan allows foreign visitors at any time during the month of July 2022.
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3177568/coronavirus-japan-expected-reopen-tourists-july-may
May 15, 8:22am: UPDATE: Based on suggestion, this market now resolved to “YES” if Japan allows >100,000 visitors to Japan in July.
https://www.tourism.jp/en/tourism-database/stats/inbound/
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I think this needs to be a little more specific. Japan is already open to "foreign visitors" who are direct family members of residents. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/04/13/national/japan-reopening-parents-foreign-residents/
It's also likely to permit limited tour groups quite soon.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/05/03/national/when-will-japan-open-to-tourists/
But it also currently maintains a cap of 20,000 new entries per day on top of the visa limitations, which may or may not be lifted even if visas are freely granted.
A clearer resolution criteria might be >100,000 visitors to Japan in June. https://www.tourism.jp/en/tourism-database/stats/inbound/
Alex is betting YES at 79% 10 days ago
@HaroldGodsoe Yeah that's fair. I took your suggestion, though I used July since that's the original date in the market.
Harold Godsoe is betting YES at 85% 10 days ago
@hongalex Cool, I'd bet on that! (Although ~80% seems pretty fair at the moment.)