Australian election called/declared when?
3
225Ṁ2978
resolved May 3
Resolved
8:00 - 8:59pm
100%99.0%
8:00 - 8:59pm
0.1%
Before 6pm
0.1%
6:00 - 6:59pm
0.1%
7:00 - 7:59pm
0.2%
9:00 - 9:59pm
0.2%
10:00 - 10:59pm
0.2%
11:00 - 11:59pm
0.1%
After midnight

When will Antony green call the election in AEST

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to the time, in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), at which ABC election analyst Antony Green officially calls the election result. The time will be determined based on the timestamp of the announcement made during the ABC's live election coverage. If no official call is made by Antony Green, the market will resolve as N/A.

Background:

Antony Green is renowned for his role as the ABC's chief election analyst, providing real-time analysis and calling election outcomes during live broadcasts. The timing of his calls can vary depending on the clarity of the election results. For instance:

  • In the 2021 Western Australian state election, Green called the election for Labor at approximately 6:42 pm AWST, just 42 minutes after counting began.

  • During the 2022 federal election, he called the result at about 9:30 pm AEST.

These examples illustrate that the timing of Green's election calls can range from early in the evening to later at night, influenced by factors such as the speed of vote counting and the decisiveness of the results.

The ABC's chief election analyst Antony Green, who has been examining election results for years, says, "You'll probably know by 10 o'clock".

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/105234124

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ABC servers were down. Antony Green called it 8:26pm (AEST)

Uupdated TAB odds (5:50pm AEST)

These are TAB odds as of 3:20pm and below are distributions i fit to TABs data (excluding the after midnight data point)

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