This is a variation of cshunter's question but with the threshold set to 90%.
Russia is set to hold a presidential election on 17 March 2024. According to Wikipedia, Vladimir Putin's share of the vote in previous elections were as follows:
2018: 77.53%
2012: 64.35%
2008: N/A (Putin was Vice President; his ally, Dmitry Medvedev ran for President; Medvedev received 71.25% of the vote)
2004: 71.91%
2000: 53.44%
Will Putin's share of the vote in the 2024 election be 90% or more, as recorded on Wikipedia's election page?
In the unlikely event of a second round of voting, the second round's percentage will be used.
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@redacted I think it's going to be 80-85% most likely, although it's possible to be 90%+ — depends mainly on their desire to forge such numbers.
@42irrationalist Yeah, my only point is that 12% is mispricing (obviously imo) and rating this too low of an outcome. I tend to agree, with my estimate around 85%