On this week's Vergecast, Nilay Patel repeatedly said that his hot take is that in three years, Google and Apple will look substantially different than they do today. With their respective ongoing antitrust cases, there is a risk that e.g. Google is forced to sell Chrome, Google's revenue percentage from Search Ads is substantially reduced, etc.

Resolves to Yes if, on May 1st, 2028, Google is no longer in direct control of Chrome, Android, Google Ad Exchange (AdX), DoubleClick for Publishers (DFP), Google Ad Manager, or if there is a subjectively large change in the categories of revenue between Q1 2025 and Q1 2028 balance sheets. Simply ending their "exclusively" and clauses and default Safari search deal with Apple is not enough. Obviously the last criteria is subjective, but I would say, for example, a 20%ish or more reduction in search revenue would qualify.