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That was quick! Thanks for playing folks

https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1605014515547983876#m

@GarrettBaker Resolves YES

@GarrettBaker She used it 4 times in quick succession, there's no way that wasn't intentional.

@IsaacKing The original railing tweet blew up on Twitter, and she became a trending topic because of it. My guess is she didn't even notice this market https://manifold.markets/GarrettBaker/did-aella-intentionally-manipulate

@GarrettBaker I did not notice this market!

@Aella I stand corrected! I guess you just really like the word "railed". :)

Looks like the base rate is around once every 2 months. She just used it this morning (which I assume is what inspired this market), so the question is whether these are independently distributed occurrences or whether it's more of a cooldown. Using it twice in April and twice in December implies the former. So I think the current 74% is about correct.

Of course if she finds out about this market and decides to manipulate it, all bets are off.

@IsaacKing Kinda hoping she finds out about it but seems unlikely

On the contrary, I think it's quite likely! :)

@Aella