Was the Hawk fire in Reno Nevada started intentionally?

Question

The Hawk fire is a fire that started in the mountains nearby Reno Nevada on Aug. 22. As of Aug 23, we have confirmation that the fire was human-caused (https://www.fox5vegas.com/2026/08/23/renos-uncontained-hawk-fire-was-caused-by-humans-authorities-say/

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Was the fire intentionally started? (I might N/A the market or partially resolve it if the cause isn't clearly one of these two options)

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Was the fire intentionally started? (I might N/A the market or partially resolve it if the cause isn't clearly one of these two options)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 42% chance (5 traders, as of Sep 11, 2026).

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