Will Twitter stock cross $54.20 before September 1st, 2022

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Elon Musk's Twitter offer is for $54.20 per share. Part of the Twitter Board's consideration is if this offer represents a fair market value for the company. Resolves to YES if Market Close Price on any day before September 1st, 2022 is MORE than $54.20. Source: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TWTR:NYSE?window=6M

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rip twtr

predicted YES

It shouldn't take much for Twitter to become a $100 billion company. If Birdwatch and Circles are rolled out successfully in the next month, the question in the media might become "is Twitter worth more than Elon Musk is willing to pay".

predicted NO

After nine years of its stock staying exactly flat and terrible execution, clearly Twitter will be turned around by an inexperienced soyboy who couldn’t get more than single digit likes on his tweets, and his fragile woke team. Trillion dollar valuation soon!

Baffled by how this is still trading so high.

bought Ṁ25 of YES

@MattP When shareholders accept the tender (which they absolutely will because it pays them like 30% more than current price GUARANTEED) then this will happen rapidly and who knows in the age of STONKS it is totally possible this could surge past the closing price because there is latency between the formal vote and the closing.

predicted YES

@MattP Just look at what is happening with Redbox https://seekingalpha.com/news/3848126-redbox-surges-23-in-apparent-short-squeeze-outstripping-acquisition-price

predicted NO

@BTE could happen. But it's unlikely.

bought Ṁ11 of NO

Mergers trade below their closing price, and this would only happen if somehow the deal price goes up 🤔

sold Ṁ169 of NO

(I still think the answer is no, I'm just cashing out to use this cash elsewhere)

bought Ṁ50 of NO

There's always at least *some* chance the deal falls through, so the market won't let the price rise above Elon's offer. The only way that would make sense is if the market thought the deal would fall through and that the company would be worth more without Elon's involvement.

bought Ṁ79 of YES

I am probably betting contrary to the actual financial markets here. Which tempts me to buy some real CALL options. Although I am not in the mood to figure out how to do the financial math to convert options prices into this probability. Would be interesting if someone here could do that.