This market resolves to YES if the total bilateral trade volume (imports + exports) between the Netherlands and Israel in Q4 2025 is at least 15% lower than in Q4 2024, according to official statistics.
Context: The Netherlands has been taking increasingly critical positions toward Israel, including pushing for EU sanctions, banning Israeli ministers from entry, and planning to ban imports from West Bank settlements. These actions, along with broader EU measures, could significantly impact trade relations. The EU is Israel's largest trading partner, and the Netherlands is a major investor in Israel.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve based on official trade statistics from either the Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), Eurostat, or the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics. It will resolve to YES if Q4 2025 bilateral trade volume (imports + exports) is at least 15% lower than Q4 2024. It will resolve to NO if the decrease is less than 15% or if trade increases. If statistics are not available by the close date, resolution may be delayed until they are published.
Sources: https://www.somo.nl/economic-sanctions-eu-is-israel-largest-investor/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/netherlands-plans-to-ban-imports-from-israels-west-bank-settlements/
1,000I can find the CBS data for goods import and export here: https://opendata.cbs.nl/statline/#/CBS/nl/dataset/85427ned/table?ts=1759600275505
After fidgeting with the columns, for Q4 2024 (oct, nov, dec), i find import 452 million euros and export 786 million euros.
Do you mean trade in goods and services or only goods?
I think I can find the table for services here: https://opendata.cbs.nl/#/CBS/nl/dataset/84765NED/table?ts=1759600660829
This gives for Q4 2024 services import 295 million euros and export 253 million euros.
Are these the figures we want to work with?
The figures have about half a year of delay, so we'll know the Q4 2025 data probably around summer 2026.