[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 9. Bxc6+, what is the score after move 10?

Basic

Ṁ5665

resolved Mar 27

Resolved as

65%

ALL

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3

The other candidate move is 9. Qe2

The conditional market for the other move is here:

If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other market, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 10. Otherwise, it resolves N/A. The score after move 10 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 10.

Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.

More details for the overall game here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

#Manifold plays chess

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7 Comments

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predicted NO

Resolves to score after move 10: 0.652004
Since I cannot enter precise percentages, I will round probabilistically by using an RNG at home: resolves to 65%.
(if anyone prefers that I use FairlyRandom, let me know)

Bxc6: Average probability: 0.643476

Qe2: Average probability: 0.633192

Bxc6+ wins.

predicted YES

👌

😬

predicted YES

I think I’ll sit the next one out 😅

@deagol Your position here seems fairly profitable! You bought cheap YES early on before I started buying up more, and clearly I'm going to want my YES shares to be worth more on the next market.

predicted YES

@jack yes I know, tried my best. Fun but a bit too stressful for my taste, thought I’d go zero balance at one point.

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