[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 8. Bb5, what is the score after move 9?
9
190Ṁ4969
resolved Mar 25
Resolved as
65%

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5

The other candidate moves are 8. g4 and 8. Bc4

The conditional markets for the other moves are here:


If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other markets, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 9. Otherwise, it resolves N/A. The score after move 9 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 9.

Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.

More details for the overall game here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

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predictedNO 2y

Resolves to score after move 9: 0.643476
Since I cannot enter precise percentages, I will round probabilistically by using an RNG at home: resolves to 65%.
(if anyone prefers that I use FairlyRandom, let me know)

predictedYES 2y

Net loss of 223 for me on this one, after a net profit of 2,714 on Rg1. Could have been better but oh well.

predictedYES 2y

@jack good think i dumped last minute. Congrats to team NO. We’ll have to see where we all stand for next one, but as I said I will just watch, maybe a small bet here or there.

predictedYES 2y

*thing

predictedYES 2y

@deagol Only good for you to have sold above 65%, every share sold past that was a loss :)

predictedYES 2y

@jack I thought I could send them to you at 67% but that backstop got removed last few minutes. I gotta manage my position size way more than you, given our balances, so still decided to dump and keep 500 (still more than what I was comfortable with) despite no backstop.

predictedYES 2y

@deagol Makes sense, I'll plan to leave some more limit orders at a moderate price at the end

2y

Bb5: Average probability: 0.758468

Bc4: Average probability: 0.736854
g4: Average probability: 0.729556


Bb5 wins.

2y

you guys almost had me there, fun! 😅

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