[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 8. Bb5, what is the score after move 9?
9
190Ṁ4969
resolved Mar 25
Resolved as
65%

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5

The other candidate moves are 8. g4 and 8. Bc4

The conditional markets for the other moves are here:


If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other markets, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 9. Otherwise, it resolves N/A. The score after move 9 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 9.

Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.

More details for the overall game here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

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