[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 2. Bc4, what is the score after move 3?
[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 2. Bc4, what is the score after move 3?
4
110Ṁ98
resolved Mar 12
Resolved as
51%

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.

The game so far: 1.e4 e5

The other candidate move is 2. Nf3.

The conditional market for the other move is here:


If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other market, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 3. Otherwise, it resolves N/A.

The score after move 3 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 3.

Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.

More details for the overall game here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

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predictedNO 2y

Bc4: Average probability: 0.236785
Nf3: Average probability: 0.235114


Bc4 seems to have won.

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