Terms

• "Kilauea" is the youngest volcano on the Island of Hawai'i. Eruptions of other Hawaiian volcanoes don't count.

• "In" is defined using UTC-10 (the Hawaii–Aleutian Time Zone).

  • Market is intended to be settled within 48 hours of the end of the month or as soon as I'm convinced that an eruption has occurred.

• "Erupt" shall primarily be determined by the USGS Kilauea page.

  • Backup data sources will strongly prefer official announcements from the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).

  • Duration, location, and size of an eruption are irrelevant. Any declared eruption of Kilauea in the time period will treated as a "Yes" answer.

• Market will resolve N/A if an eruption starts in January

Unlikely, but possible, ambiguities

• When an eruption occurred: most eruptions of Kilauea can be dated to within a few seconds thanks to multiple cameras operated by HVO. For eruptions in unexpected locations, imagery from geostationary satellites can usually date an eruption to within a few minutes (example from nearby Mauna Loa in 2022). If an eruption occurs near the end of the month (or the beginning of next month), I'll do my best to determine its precise start time. If I think there's a 1% or higher chance that it began in this market's month, I'll resolve as "Yes".

• Type of eruption: Kilauea continuously produces >100 tonnes/day of SO2 outgassing, but the HVO does not normally call this an eruption. If the volume increases, they may declare that an eruption, in which case this market will settle "Yes". Otherwise, this market will not count gas release by itself as an eruption.

• Other ambiguities: for other ambiguities, I will post a detailed comment and provide at least 24 hours for debate before settling the market to the best of my ability. I will strongly prefer settling as "Yes" or "No".

Disclosure: I will bet in this market, although I will cease if I think the situation has become ambiguous.