Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Bitcoin closes at or above $140,000 USD on any day before December 31, 2025. Resolution will be determined using the closing price from major exchanges including Coinbase, Kraken, or Binance. If these sources conflict, the median price across the three will be used. The market resolves NO if Bitcoin never reaches $140,000 by year-end.

Background

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,210.50 on October 6, 2025, but has since experienced significant volatility. As of November 23, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $86,000–$86,500. In early October, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high around $126,000, but over the past six weeks, more than $1.2 trillion has been wiped off the total crypto market value.

Considerations

Reaching $140,000 would require Bitcoin to appreciate approximately 62% from current levels. In 2025, Bitcoin's price is projected to range between $84,643 (bearish) and $181,064 (bullish), with an average price prediction for the year of $125,027. While some analysts remain bullish on year-end targets, the recent sharp correction and persistent ETF outflows of $3.55 billion in November present headwinds for a sustained rally to $140,000 in the remaining weeks of 2025.