Will the reforms of the new president of Argentina(Milei) be good for the country's economy by 2024

I will resolve this as a "Yes" if their GDP goes up from 2023 until 2024.

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misleading title. but it's worth noting that their gdp shrank by 5.1% Q1 2024 [1]. add to this poverty rate reaching 60% [2], unemployment at 7% [3], slashing of government jobs and spending [4]. i'm bullish on argentina in the long term but based on the description, this market seems overpriced.

[1] https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/gdp-growth-annual
[2] https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2024-02-19/argentinas-poverty-levels-hit-57-of-population-a-20-year-high-in-january-study-finds
[3] https://buenosairesherald.com/economics/argentinas-gdp-drops-5-1-and-unemployment-climbs-to-7-7
[4] https://reason.com/2024/03/28/milei-to-slash-70000-government-jobs-to-reform-argentinas-economy/

bought Ṁ150 YES

All true. Meanwhile stock index is up 50%+. Of course the question is if that will be reflected in the GDP in time for this market to close.


@grofigaszadosijv You need to change the title to "Will the reforms of the new president of Argentina (Milei) cause an increase in GDP from the beginning to the end of 2024?"

Your current title is wildly out of touch with the current situation in Argentina, as your criterion is only measuring short-term GDP growth, not the long term, good-for-the-economy disinflation that Javier Milei is aiming for.

Argentina Monthly Inflation Cooled for Fourth Straight Month - Bloomberg

Argentina Cuts Interest Rate for Sixth Time to 40% as Inflation Slows - Bloomberg

Milei’s Chainsaw Austerity Is Slowing Argentina Inflation: Chart - BNN Bloomberg

The resolution criteria are measuring something only very weakly related to what the question is asking.

bought Ṁ200 YES

@AndrewHebb You are correct, it needs to be changed, GDP includes government production.

@Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir That's not what I meant. If government production goes up while the rest of the economy does not grow, that is still an improvement to the economy. What I meant is that there are many things that affect the economy besides Milei's reforms, so GDP can easily shrink despite the reforms being good. It could also easily rise even if the reforms were bad.

@AndrewHebb Add to that that what makes them good or bad is its comparison with the counterfactual, so even if things get worse it may be one of the good timelines.

@AndrewHebb I believe the government production raising would be bad because it always has a long term cost, but i see.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Nominal or Real GDP (US$)?

NEW YORK, Jan 30 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund slashed its 2024 economic growth projection for Argentina to a 2.8% contraction from a 2.8% expansion, dimming its view on output growth in Latin America as a whole as part of the fund's World Economic Outlook update on Tuesday.


Do you measure the GDP in US dollars or Argentinian peso?

predicts YES

@Marq USD, so it's at 487.2 Billion USD now.

@grofigaszadosijv Fair enough. Just wanted to be sure.

@grofigaszadosijv which exchange rate is that based off?

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