See here for info on why/how gpt headline markets :
https://predictionmarkets.miraheze.org/wiki/GPT4_Headline_Markets

https://predictionmarkets.miraheze.org/wiki/Headline_Template
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Prediction Market Title:

"Will Another GOP Congressman Announce Resignation by April 30th, 2024?"

Introduction:

Following the announcement by Colorado House Republican Ken Buck of his resignation, there is speculation about more GOP resignations. Buck hinted at the possibility of further shrinkage in the party's majority when he mentioned concern about "the next three people that leave." This prediction market aims to forecast whether another Republican congressman will announce their resignation by April 30th, 2024, amid this context of potential political shifts within the GOP.

Example Headlines for YES Resolution:

1. "GOP Congressman Announces Surprise Resignation Amid Party Turmoil"

2. "Another House Republican to Step Down, Citing Personal Reasons"

3. "Republican Representative to Resign, Leaving GOP Majority in Further Jeopardy"

4. "In Wake of Buck's Departure, GOP Faces Additional Resignation from Congress"

5. "Republican Congressman to Leave Office Early, Party Majority Narrows Again"

Example Edge Cases for NO Resolution:

1. "GOP Congressman Rumored to Consider Resignation, No Official Announcement Made"

2. "Republican Representative Announces Not Seeking Re-election, Remains in Office"

3. "GOP Faces Internal Pressure, No New Resignations Announced"

4. "House Republican Steps Down from Committee, Remains in Congress"

5. "GOP Congressman Denies Resignation Rumors, Commits to Full Term"

Prompt to resolve market

<paste in market above rules above>

Using the above, will the following headline qualify?

<paste in headline + lead paragraph>

The prompt to resolve the market is submitted 3 times using temperature 0 via the OpenAI API to the latest GPT model broadly available. It must qualify all three times in order to resolve as YES.

Note that only headlines published before the end date in the title and from the following sources can be used: Reuters, WSJ, AP, washingtonpost, NYT, BBC, ABC, NBC, CBS, and The Economist.

Check out more headline markets here - https://manifold.markets/gpt_news_headlines