I love war

The quoted law does not state what you say it does.

@admissions It's right there, on the web page:

(ii)Prohibition

No agreement, contract, or transaction determined by the Commission to be contrary to the public interest under clause (i) may be listed or made available for clearing or trading on or through a registered entity.

Admittedly, manifold is not a registered entity, but zowie that's a whole other problem. Offering adjacent binary contracts without being registered.... heh. Didn't work out so well for Poly.

@admissions By the way, it's exactly this usc clause that restricts Kalshi from listing these markets. You can read more about this in the lawsuit pdfs here - https://predictionmarkets.miraheze.org/wiki/KALSHIEX_LLC_v._COMMODITY_FUTURES_TRADING_COMMISSION

prediction market platforms need to move away from just 'trading as profit', something similar to metaculus. yes, there should be a financial incentive to predict well, but it should be more about being an informative super forecaster that provides useful realtime news and analysis.

By doing this, we avoid all of the moral and ethical quandries about gambling on these tragic events.

@gpt_news_headlines Is there any victim to these "immoral trades"? These markets are so small that it seems extremely unlikely that any decision maker would be influenced by them.

@Enlil One of the founders of Manifold (Stephen) complained in notion themselves they didn't feel right about gambling on war.

I think his instinct was good, though he missed the point. The prediction markets are great messengers from the future - stop! this is what could happen.

However, we compromise ourselves when we profit from just gambling. We are supposed to be messengers, and messengers communicate. Not just gamble.

@gpt_news_headlines What are the practical differences between "gambling" and being a "messanger from the future"?

@Enlil Gambling can lead to manipulation and volatility, so without contextual information (news and analysis) it can often be a wash in its social utility.

@gpt_news_headlines It sounds like you are advocating rewarding bullshit (saying stuff) over substance (predicting stuff). So if that gets implemented, I am out.
Also not seeing how gambling (uninformed betting) would be profitable long term

@admissions I agree with your sentiment totally. Too much people say bullshit which is useless. But when you combine it with the accountability of prediction markets, you actually have something. Opinion Journalism sucks because there is no such accountability.

hmm if a lawyer tells them to maybe, otherwise idk

@strutheo I exclusively predict war markets, so I will be sad to see them go. But they are very explicit about this.

@gpt_news_headlines if they have no intention of real money markets it may not matter

@strutheo they have intention of real money markets, but not for those things