Edit: The answer is No and a little complex. See the comment thread below for the details.


I'm creating this poll mostly to understand how Manifold work.

Edit: Simpler example:

I create a market, it has only 1 trader who bets 1000 mana on YES. I resolve it legitimately as a NO. Is that 1000 mana effectively deleted from circulation?

Original Example:
Say there are two scenarios:

Scenario 1: A market with many traders reach 50:50 odds and then resolves to YES.

Scenario 2: The same market, but just before it resolves, a large trader comes and shift the odds to (approx.) 100:0 YES:NO, netting a large earning.

If I understand how things work, the large trader has not affected any of the earning of the existing traders, so where is the mana coming from? Without reading into the math behind betting markets, I see two scenarios:

1. The mana comes from the pool traders have created. This means that Scenario 1 effectively deleted that mana.

2. The mana comes from Manifold subsidizing things which means that the amount of Mana generated in the market changes based on how the market closes.

If Mana is indeed deleted when closing any market, did anyone estimate how much is removed every day (vs created)?