MANIFOLD
Will I have a "Successful Week", based on the objective scoring criteria below? (2 February 2026)
12
Ṁ1kṀ1.2k
Feb 8
76%
chance
7

From whenever I go to bed on Sunday night/Monday morning on Feb 1/2 2026 (with a hard cap of 3am EST on Monday morning) to 3am Monday 7 days later, will I meet at least 5 of the 8 goals below?

-Take adderall on 2 distinct calendar days

-Lift 2x

-Eat >=750 of protein

-Complete and submit at least 2 externally visible research deliverables (social choice theory undergrad research group)

-Submit all - except 1 at maximum - weekly homework on time and show up to all - except 1 at maximum - classes within exactly 15 minutes of start time (ie showing up to at most 1 class late or missing it is allowed, or missing 1 homework due date). If homework due date is missed must be submitted within exactly 24 hours of original due date

-Practice solo drums on 3 distinct days (ie group rehearsals don't count, solo does, even if it's just with a practice pad)

-Begin bedtime routine by 2am and be in bed with lights and phone off by 3am on at least 3 distinct days (again, Sunday night counts, regardless of before or after midnight)

-Leave residence by 12:30pm on at least 3 distinct days

These are all hard cutoffs. I.e. stepping outside for 30 seconds at 12:29 counts for the daily activation goal, but if it's at 12:31pm it doesn't.

All times EST.

This is part of an attempt to habit track and incentivize sticking to goals. I will only bet YES in this market, to incentivize myself.

Previous markets:

Week 1 (resolved YES)

Week 2 (resolved NO)

Updates from last week

Easier: school/HW (added allowance for one late homework)

Protein (800->750)

Gym (3->2)

Harder: Drums (2->3)

Unchanged: Sleep, activation, research, adderall

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wed morning update

adderall 1/2

gym 0/2

protein 270/750g

research 0/2

drums 1/3

sleep 0/3

activation 0/3

missed classes

bought Ṁ100 YES

Monday night/Tuesday morning update:

adderall 1/2

gym 0/2

protein 140/750g

research 0/2

drums 0/3

sleep 0/3

activation 0/3

missed multiple classes

points for 0, points against 1

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