MANIFOLD
Will I have a "Successful Week", based on the objective scoring criteria below? (01/26/26)
5
Ṁ1kṀ756
Feb 1
75%
chance

From whenever I go to bed on Sunday night/Monday morning on January 25/26 2026 (with a hard cap of 3am EST on Monday morning) to 3am Monday 7 days later, will I meet at least 5 of the 8 goals below?

-Take adderall on 2 distinct calendar days (last week: 1/2)

-Lift 3x (updated from 2x last week, succeeded)

-Eat >=800 of protein (updated from 700g last week, succeeded)

-Complete and submit at least 2 externally visible research deliverables (social choice theory undergrad research group) (updated from 1 last week; 2 code pushes that are different versions of the same thing would not count, it needs to be 2 distinct tasks. Will solicit commenter opinion if any possible ambiguity)

-Submit all weekly homework on time and show up to all - except 1 at maximum - classes within exactly 15 minutes of start time (ie showing up to at most 1 class late or missing it is allowed)

-Practice solo drums on 2 distinct days (ie group rehearsals don't count, solo does, even if it's just with a practice pad)

-Begin bedtime routine by 2am and be in bed with lights and phone off by 3am on at least 3 distinct days (again, Sunday night counts, regardless of before or after midnight)

-Leave residence by 12:30pm on at least 3 distinct days

These are all hard cutoffs. I.e. stepping outside for 30 seconds at 12:29 counts for the daily activation goal, but if it's at 12:31pm it doesn't.

All times EST.

This is part of an attempt to habit track and incentivize sticking to goals. I will only bet YES in this market, to incentivize myself.

Last week market;

https://manifold.markets/gorillawarfare/will-i-have-a-successful-week-based?r=Z29yaWxsYXdhcmZhcmU

5/8 goals succeeded, resolved YES

Updates: Made activation goal easier, added 1 to lifting goal, added 100g protein, added 1 allowable class missed, added 1 research deliverable

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Sort by:

thurs update

bedtime 2/3

activation 2/3

adderall 2/2

research 0/2

drums 1/2

gym 0/3

missed homework

protein 405/800g

points gotten 1/5, points missed 1/3

wed update:

bedtime 1/3

activation 1/3

adderall 1/2

research 0/2

drums 1/2

gym 0/3

missed homework

protein 255/800g

tuesday update:

bedtime 1/3

activation 1/3

adderall 1/2

research 0/2

drums 0/2

gym 0/3

missed homework

protein 160/800g

Monday night update:

bedtime 0/3

daily activation 0/3

adderall 0/2

research 0/2

drums 0/2

gym 0/3

classes/hw none missed

protein 95/800g

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