Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2025 New York City mayoral general election, Eric Adams receives more votes than Curtis Sliwa. Official vote counts published by the New York City Board of Elections will serve as the definitive source for resolution. If Adams does not receive more votes than Sliwa, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

As of June 2025, the political landscape for the upcoming New York City mayoral election has evolved significantly:

• Eric Adams: The incumbent mayor, Eric Adams, withdrew from the Democratic primary on April 3, 2025, opting to run for re-election as an independent candidate. His administration has faced challenges, including federal investigations into alleged corruption, leading to calls for his resignation. (lemonde.fr)

• Curtis Sliwa: Curtis Sliwa, founder of the Guardian Angels and the Republican nominee in the 2021 mayoral election, is again running as the Republican candidate in 2025.

• Andrew Cuomo: Former Governor Andrew Cuomo announced his candidacy for mayor, seeking a political comeback after resigning in 2021 amid a sexual harassment scandal. He has secured significant support from Wall Street financiers and leads in early polls. (ft.com)

• Zohran Mamdani: A 33-year-old democratic socialist and state Assembly member from Queens, Mamdani has gained traction among progressive voters, advocating for policies like free child care and rent freezes. (apnews.com)

Recent polling data indicates:

• In a general election matchup, Cuomo leads with 44%, Sliwa at 13%, Adams at 10%, and other candidates trailing. (en.wikipedia.org)

• In a hypothetical race between Mamdani, Sliwa, Adams, and Jim Walden, Mamdani leads with 35%, Sliwa at 16%, and Adams at 15%. (en.wikipedia.org)

These figures suggest that both Adams and Sliwa are trailing behind leading candidates like Cuomo and Mamdani.

Considerations

• Independent Candidacy: Adams' decision to run as an independent may impact his traditional Democratic voter base.

• Legal Challenges: Ongoing federal investigations into Adams' administration could influence voter perception and his electoral prospects.

• Voter Dynamics: The presence of strong candidates like Cuomo and Mamdani may split the vote, affecting the relative performance of Adams and Sliwa.

Given these factors, traders should monitor campaign developments, polling trends, and any emerging news that could influence voter behavior leading up to the election.