Will UAW's demand for a 40% hourly pay increase be met by any of the Detroit automakers by October 31?
resolved Nov 14

Resolution Source: Official announcements from UAW or the Detroit automakers, or major news outlets reporting on the negotiations.

Expiry: October 31, 2023, 12:00 p.m. ET.

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predicted NO

@getby resolution please!

predicted YES

We do have major announcements from the union and press, but it's unclear if they meet the 40% margin depending on how you read them. The baseline wage raise is 25% over several years, but they also seem to be retroactively reintroducing the cost-of-living wage adjustment, which means the vast majority of wages are increasing by way more than 40%, but the topmost earners are "only" getting 33%. I'd say if you count the total effect of the deal on hourly wages, it's a clear Yes, but if you count only the baseline increase and not the overall increase, it's No. @getby


predicted NO

@Panfilo Do you know what the framing of the original demand was? E.g if it wanted 40% in the base rate, or 40% straight away and then an increase over a few years, or something else, that might make this market seem like a NO, even if the 40% threshold is met over time for most employees.

This market should probably resolve on how well the spirit of the demand, as originally made, was satisfied, so we should take a look at it. Will see if I can find it when I have time.

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington I think it's probably No but the press/union def wants some bigger numbers being discussed because of how good the deal was for temp workers specifically.

predicted NO

@Panfilo it sounds like quoted increases due to cost of living adjustments are estimates about future inflation, and not codified in the agreement as actual percentage increases.

Articles like this one are comparing the 25% figure with the original 40% demand:


predicted NO

@getby, just another ping, you may want to reopen this market, it can't currently be traded on. Mouse over the close date and you'll see an edit button, you can set it to Oct 31st and the market will re-open.

predicted NO

@getby did you intend for this market to close already, when the description says Oct 31st?

predicted NO

@getby this market closes Sep 22nd, did you intend it to close early or should that be Oct 31st?