Will I see the Total Solar Eclipse on 2024-04-08?
Personal Goalsβ€’Funβ€’Texasβ€’Unrankedβ€’Unsubsidized
55
540
αΉ€1.2K
resolved Apr 8
Resolved
YES

I will resolve this market after the Solar Eclipse on 2024-04-08 to

  • YES if I got a nice view of it.

  • NO otherwise. For example, if I don't make it to the path of totality, or if the view is obstructed by clouds.

I will travel to Texas from Europe for the Eclipse.

If have done this before. In 2017, I was on a hill in Wyoming, and there was not a single cloud (this would have resolved YES). Back in 1999 when I was in SW Germany, it would have resolved NO due to overcast conditions.

My idea is to use the market for risk management by buying NO. πŸ˜†

Get αΉ€200 play money

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Looking great for Little Rock:

sold αΉ€174 YES

Spent the night in Little Rock. I'm optimistic about tomorrow.

@fwave I assume you're following weather prediction models like the HRRR and will be driving to locations that are predicted to be relatively free of clouds tomorrow?

Edit: removed prediction I disagree with now

@JonathanMannhart I want to avoid driving around on Eclipse day and stay on the same location.

The only thing I will look out for on satellite images are huge cirrus that you could avoid by driving somewhere else.

Then there will be cumulus. Their production should be slowed down by the lower radiation levels of partial eclipse before totallity. (was in a paper that "went vital" recently)

@fwave Yes, cumulus clouds will dissipate somewhat. But looks like you don't need to worry about those too much.

Best of luck! Have fun!

bought αΉ€100 NO

I’m betting NO, but I hope for your sake that I’m wrong.

Where in the country are you planning on visiting?

@soweliSon below they confirmed they'll be in Texas (I think because the description says Texas) - where in the state is crucial though!

@soweliSon I will try to get to a place with no clouds. The spot could be half way between Houston and Chicago.

The whole thing will involve a lot of driving, but I brought plenty of time for it.

will you be in the path of the totality (Texas or otherwise) on Monday? β˜€οΈ

Yes.

bought αΉ€0 of YES

@fwave you seem pretty determined to see the eclipse, so I took your limit order at 70%. I left a YES order at 50% as well if you're interested. Good luck seeing the eclipse, I'm hoping I'll get to see it as well!

Where in Texas do you plan to go?

predicted NO

@bluefrog Tricky. Needs live weather data. Two days before, large scale move, e.g. Mexico or Oklahoma direction. The day before, when short term forecasts are available, I'll be able to answer more precisely.

@fwave Do you have specific plans yet?

@PeterMillerc030 I'm looking at resources like https://www.pivotalweather.com/eclipse2024 and will travel to the north by car from Houston.

bought αΉ€50 YES from 54% to 57%