Will Hamas negotiate to release more 10/7 hostages before a permanent ceasefire ?
Basic
25
2.2k
2025
41%
chance

On 12/19/2023, Israeli president Herzog declared his country was ready to an humanitarian pause to enable the release of hostages.

Hamas answered "We affirm our position of categorically rejecting to hold any form of negotiations over prisoners exchange under the continuing Israeli genocidal war. We are, however, open to any initiative that contributes to ending the aggression on our people and opening the crossings to bring in aid and provide relief to the Palestinian people"

Will resolve :

  • to YES if Hamas accept a limited scope pause and release more hostages during that pause , even if it morph to a permanent ceasefire later,

  • to NO if a permanent ceasefire is required before any more hostage is released by Hamas ,

  • to N/A if Hamas is removed from power OR permanent ceasefire is reached without hostages being released by them,

  • as soon as any hostage is released by Hamas OR ceasefire is reached OR both OR Hamas is effectively removed from power over the hostages

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https://www.ynetnews.com/article/h1mpdza0p. So it seems Israel has largely accepted the terms Hamas presented earlier. 61% seems low for this market

bought Ṁ60 YES from 61% to 69%

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