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Can resolve no

I think there was a methodological change here but since the rules mention nothing about changes, we'll just use the new data?

@ScottSupak I think the fairest way to resolve is according to the site’s data summary, regardless of how the values are derived. But I’m open to hearing arguments for alternative resolutions

@flexadecimal Hopefully, we won't have to wait too long for them to update through the EoY. They're only up to 12/23 atm.

@ScottSupak Yea :/

I think the right move is to keep the close date so trading stops on Jan 1, but obviously not resolve until 12/31 data is available. But an alternative option is to keep trading open until whenever we get 12/31 data

@flexadecimal I think that in general "resolves to data on this site" means that "site changes methodology" is one of the risks of trading and traders need to account for it. I think using the new methodology is the best default by far.

If you want to not have that risk, decide before the change that you're going to make an attempt to use the old methodology and figure out a plan for doing that (like running the analysis code yourself).

This is fun to watch! The 2023 line plunges closer to the 2022 line for December 11th while in Atlantic Canada today temperatures are 20 degrees C above normal, and are above the likely planetary average temperature despite being a few days away from the winter solstice.

Here is the result of moving 1979-2021 rest-of-year temperatures to current starting temp; 0 out of 43 years cross the 2022 line. This makes assumptions the data probably don't satisfy, but still seems to imply <<34%.

@flexadecimal Dec. 5 update

Related:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/november-2023-el-nino-update-transport-options

If I was less new here and had more mana, I'd bid this down to like 30, and still consider that bet conservative.

As a meteorologist, there is so much delusion in these positions. I can tell you with certainty that 2023 is unprecedented and will continue to be hotter than 2022.

@kanyegawa But looking at the chart there were a bunch of days from January to April where 2022 was hotter?

@DanielJohnston I have a market that might interest you: https://manifold.markets/flexadecimal/is-kanyegawa-actually-a-meteorologi

@DanielJohnston yes, there were. From January until June, 2022 and 2023's lines crossed quite frequently. After June, they did not. So, either this is random noise, or something changed in June. I think it's the latter, and that the change in June was El Nino became much more noticeable. El Nino lasts for a year or two once it's started, so for at least a few months I think it's a fairly safe bet we'll have temperatures well above those 12 months prior. Which does not, of course, mean it's a safe bet that every single day without exception will be above the year prior. I'm crossing my fingers we don't have a random temperature drop at the end of December that meets the little spike in 2022.