Will Sam Altman return to being the CEO of OpenAI before the end of November, 2023?
resolved Nov 30

For any length of time, even if they're removed again shortly afterwards.

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predicted NO

Hey all - please signal boost my question to OpenAI so we can get a real answer:


predicted NO


The latest information (yesterday, 11/29) we have says:

"Message from Sam to the company

I am returning to OpenAI as CEO. Mira will return to her role as CTO. The new initial board will consist of Bret Taylor (Chair), Larry Summers, and Adam D’Angelo."

Everything is phrased in future tense, as if it is going to happen (agreement reached) but has not happened yet. It's clear that all the documents have not been signed and taken force. If Sam was currently CEO, the press release would say "I am delighted to be back at OpenAI as CEO". Press releases in high-stakes situations are written VERY CAREFULLY with every word scrutinized. A press release would never say this if Sam was CEO. Instead it clearly says that he will be CEO in the future.

What we have learned is that Sam was NOT the CEO on 11/29. So today, 11/30 is the last opportunity for him to become CEO in November. This market should wait until we have the announcement that Sam is finally CEO, and see what date that is.


predicted YES

@patrissimo as someone without much of a horse in the race here, I think this was resolved correctly

predicted YES

@patrissimo what? you left out the title which literally says:

Sam Altman returns as CEO, OpenAI has a new initial board

Mira Murati as CTO, Greg Brockman returns as President. Read messages from CEO Sam Altman and board chair Bret Taylor

messages from CEO Sam Altman and Sam Altman returns as CEO

this was resolved correctly, don't leave out the pertinent part of the announcement because it doesn't align with your bet...

predicted NO

@shankypanky Thanks, I did not see the headline. Then we have a conflict between the headline, and the first paragraph. That does not say "clear resolution" to me. That says "uncertain still". Usually headlines are written by different people than the. body of press release, and not scrutinized as much. That's in my experience as a board member & CEO.

I'm going to tap my OpenAI contacts and see if I can get more information.

What a wild ride, but nowhere as wild as what OpenAI went through. Ilya not being on the leadership team anymore sucks, but let's see how things go. Thanks for participating, everyone. Sam's back as CEO.

Read messages from CEO Sam Altman and board chair Bret Taylor.

Below are messages CEO Sam Altman and board chair Bret Taylor shared with the company this afternoon.


Sam Altman returns as CEO, OpenAI has a new initial board

predicted NO

@shankypanky slightly disagree. The article mentions what we already knew (Sam will be returning sometime soon) but not when

sold Ṁ347 of NO

No, it says "Mira Murati as CTO, Greg Brockman returns as President. Read messages from CEO Sam Altman and board chair Bret Taylor." This is a clear statement that he is CEO and it is from openai.com

predicted YES

@FernandoSmith what?

The title is literally

Sam Altman returns as CEO, OpenAI has a new initial board

Mira Murati as CTO, Greg Brockman returns as President. Read messages from CEO Sam Altman and board chair Bret Taylor.

predicted NO

@shankypanky Good catch. He might still not legally be the CEO yet, and they could be saying "CEO Sam Altman" the same way you'd say "president" to a recently elected (not yet in office) president.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

No, that's nitpicking, the openai.com website says he's CEO so he's CEO

predicted NO

@shankypanky but given that the market was very loosely defined, I'd say it's a yes!

bought Ṁ40 of NO

Certainly a unique take on time decay on display in this market

bought Ṁ100 NO from 39% to 36%
bought Ṁ40 of YES

@chrisjbillington I'm just a lowly bot, working in the arbitrage mines

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington I don't think no news is necessarily NO news in this market. It may be evidence that things are going smoothly, and Altman has already been shuffled into his position without fuss.

predicted NO

@Jacy there's a possibility of that, but I think it's more likely that we'll hear about it immediately once the agreement is finalised

predicted YES

In case anyone isn’t already following, all of the debate related to this market is going on over here:

predicted YES

I think we should keep an eye on their official webpage, which hasn't been update since any of the drama:

predicted YES

Rip my profits. OpenAI is cucking us.

predicted NO

@Haws I know that feeling. It reminds me of spaceX launching on schedule.

predicted NO

How will you resolve this if Sam Altman and openAI sign a contract for Altman’s reinstatement as CEO within November and the contract is effectual from 1st of December or 1st of January?

I think that is the most likely outcome.

@IonMarqvardsen if he signs a contract to start his job in January , then he starts his job in January. Someone else (or no one?) stays CEO in November or December.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@firstuserhere And the same goes for first of December. Right? 😅

So Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. The current CEO has to have a day’s notice and things need to be sorted out. You don’t fire anyone unless you’re sure it’s necessary. Lots of people are involved.

I will double down on December 1st.

@IonMarqvardsen yes, January was good for illustration, but point holds for December too.

Btw December 1 Is a Friday. Aren't most new jobs usually started on a monday

predicted NO

@firstuserhere In Denmark 🇩🇰 (where I live) it’s usually the first working day of the month. Salaries are paid one month at a time.

predicted YES
bought Ṁ50 NO from 38% to 36%
bought Ṁ50 of NO

@TP8ac2 Sounds like they rounded up the date of the "we have an in principle agreement" tweet to the next day. Misreporting of this as Sam "returning to work" or being CEO again has unfortunately been very widespread.

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington The assumption that all the reporting on this is lazy and incompetent is risky imo. I’ve gone close to net neutral on this across markets due to the uncertainty.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@TP8ac2 It's not much of an assumption - every article so far that sources the claim points to the "in principle agreement" tweet, and many with headlines saying Altman is back then say in-text merely that he will be back, or cite the in-principle agreement. The error is well-demonstrated, it's only unclear whether it's laziness, genuine misunderstanding, deliberate exaggeration, or some combination of all three.

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington I’ve read several articles on this and few have explicitly based him being back on the ‘in principle agreement’. We’ll see how it goes I guess.