Who will develop the first model to reach 1500 ELO on LLMArena Text leaderboard?
6
1káš10212027
31%
OpenAI
14%
Anthropic
34%
Google / Deepmind
3%
Deepseek
4%
X / Grok
2%
Mistral
2%
Alibaba
3%
Meta
2%
Microsoft
3%
Resolves YES for the first company building a model that reaches 1500 on the Text Arena and NO for others.
Resolves N/A for everyone if the Text Arena is deprecated with no obvious replacement.
Update 2025-09-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolves using the LLMArena Text leaderboard with the default settings (not the "style control removed" variant).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Model at 1600 Elo on lmarena before 2026?
4% chance
First model series to cross 1500 on lmarena.ai?
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
What organization will have the top OPEN model on the Text leaderboard on LMArena at end of 2025?
Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Will someone new reach 2800 Elo rating in 2025?
16% chance
Who will have the highest ranking model on web.lmarena.ai by EOY 2025?
Will GPT-5 score higher than 1350 on the Lmsys Arena Leaderboard
99% chance
Will a publicly available LLM/Agent beat a 2000 rated Elo chess player online rapid chess by March 2027?
85% chance