Who will develop the first model to reach 1500 ELO on LLMArena Text leaderboard?
6
1kṀ1021
2027
31%
OpenAI
14%
Anthropic
34%
Google / Deepmind
3%
Deepseek
4%
X / Grok
2%
Mistral
2%
Alibaba
3%
Meta
2%
Microsoft
3%
Other

Resolves YES for the first company building a model that reaches 1500 on the Text Arena and NO for others.

Resolves N/A for everyone if the Text Arena is deprecated with no obvious replacement.

  • Update 2025-09-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolves using the LLMArena Text leaderboard with the default settings (not the "style control removed" variant).

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Are you using the default settings, or with "style control" removed?

@ShankarSivarajan yes default

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy