Who will develop the first model to reach 1500 ELO on LLMArena Text leaderboard?
6
1káš9862027
35%
OpenAI
9%
Anthropic
38%
Google / Deepmind
3%
Deepseek
3%
X / Grok
2%
Mistral
2%
Alibaba
3%
Meta
2%
Microsoft
3%
Resolves YES for the first company building a model that reaches 1500 on the Text Arena and NO for others.
Resolves N/A for everyone if the Text Arena is deprecated with no obvious replacement.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
First model series to cross 1500 on lmarena.ai?
Model at 1600 Elo on lmarena before 2026?
19% chance
Will a publicly available LLM/Agent beat a 2000 rated Elo chess player online rapid chess by March 2027?
85% chance
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Will someone new reach 2800 Elo rating in 2025?
24% chance
GPT5 gets 1500 elo on lmarena.ai?
50% chance
Who will have the highest ranking model on web.lmarena.ai by EOY 2025?
Will GPT-5 score higher than 1350 on the Lmsys Arena Leaderboard
95% chance