This market resolves as YES if my rank in Seasons 5, 6, 7, and 8 of the Manifold Leagues is always Diamond. Otherwise, this market resolves as NO upon me being promoted to Masters or demoted to Platinum.

I've been in Diamond ever since Season 2, and I've consistently ended up around rank 5 to rank 7 in my leagues - almost high enough to promote, but not quite. Will this streak continue? Am I permanently in Diamond (not that it's a bad place to be?)

I reserve the right to bet on this market, since the outcome isn't entirely within my control. I am trying to make this resolve as NO because I'd like to promote to Masters eventually, but I'm not guaranteed to succeed.

Fine print

This market will close on the 1st of September, October, November, and December of 2023, then either resolve or re-open, as follows:

• Sept-Nov.: Market closes on the 1st. If I'm promoted or demoted, resolves NO upon League rankings being finalized. Otherwise, reopens.

• Dec.: Market closes on the 1st. If I'm promoted or demoted, resolves NO upon League rankings being finalized. Otherwise, resolves YES upon League rankings being finalized.

If Diamond is renamed but is still the rank between Platinum and Masters, this market still resolves YES if I never leave the renamed League. This also applies if all leagues are renamed. For example, if the new ranks are S, A, B, C, D, and E, this market resolves YES if I never leave the A rank.

If Manifold Leagues no longer exist at any point before 2024, this market resolves as YES if I never left Diamond, even if I would have been on track to promote or demote at the end of the final season.