Just for fun! I don't suggest putting lots of play-money into this market; it's going to resolve based on my subjective enjoyment of a video game.
Reasons a YES outcome is possible:
I loved Breath of the Wild - it's my favorite game ever - and I've been excited for the sequel since the moment it was announced. I know that the gameplay, music, etc. will appeal to me.
The world is bigger, and there are more ways to interact with it (including creating vehicles). Link's new abilities look fun, as do the various new/reworked enemies and bosses shown in the third trailer.
The story looks very, very interesting. In particular, I have been fairly invested in it since the third trailer.
I am better at video games now than I was in 2017, so I shouldn't struggle as much with bosses or difficult enemies.
I have heard nothing but positive things about the game from the people who have played it.
My life is on a broadly positive trajectory at the moment, and this will likely be even more true in May (Update, May 5: it is.) It's easier to enjoy things when I'm feeling well.
Reasons a NO outcome is possible:
Some of my love for Breath of the Wild may be nostalgia, since I played it at a very positive time in my life. I may be somewhat burned out on the "formula" of Breath of the Wild after playing it twice. Also, the bar is just set really high; Breath of the Wild is my favorite game. It would take something really, REALLY good to displace it.
The basic landscape of Hyrule has not changed much, even though many details of it have.
I'm not THAT good at video games, so if the difficulty is significantly increased, I might still struggle with it.
I'm on an SSRI, which tends to blunt my emotional reactions to things, so I might not be capable of enjoying TOTK in the same way I enjoyed BOTW.
This market resolves as YES if, after completing the main story of Tears of the Kingdom, I feel that I enjoyed it more than I enjoyed my first playthrough of Breath of the Wild. In the unlikely event that I have completed (by my estimate) half or more of the story content in the game, and have liked that half significantly more than I liked the first half of Breath of the Wild, this market resolves as YES.
This market resolves as NO if, after completing the main story of Tears of the Kingdom, I feel that I enjoyed it less than I enjoyed my first playthrough of Breath of the Wild. It also resolves as NO in the very unlikely event that I dislike the game enough that I stop playing before completing the main story.
This market resolves as N/A if I somehow manage to enjoy Tears of the Kingdom exactly as much as I enjoyed my first playthrough of Breath of the Wild. I will be able to play Tears of the Kingdom when it is available on the North American eShop. If I have not finished the game by the closing date of the market, I will move the closing date to give myself enough time to finish the game.
DLC is NOT taken into account. This is a first playthrough to first playthrough comparison, and this market should resolve well before TOTK has any DLC. (The closing date is the start of July because I should complete the game by mid-late June; I'm busy, but not THAT busy.)
Note that while I expect YES to win, I will resolve this market fairly, and resolve it entirely based on my actual experience playing the game. I am going into the game with an open mind, and this market is not guaranteed to resolve in any particular way.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ409 | |
| 2 | Ṁ66 | |
| 3 | Ṁ29 | |
| 4 | Ṁ27 | |
| 5 | Ṁ24 |
@Darj Thank you! It was a pretty fun one; I was so sure that the answer would be "NO" at first, since surely they couldn't make lightning strike twice, and yet...
This market resolves as YES based on the following criteria: "In the unlikely event that I have completed (by my estimate) half or more of the story content in the game, and have liked that half significantly more than I liked the first half of Breath of the Wild, this market resolves as YES."
Technically, I'm resolving it early, as I've completed something like 20% (probably less) of the story content of the game (i.e. one dungeon). However, what I have played is jaw-droppingly incredible. It makes Breath of the Wild look like a tech demo; saying I like TOTK more so far is a huge understatement. Given how much I love the gameplay, the characters, the story, and the soundtrack, I can't think of anything that would cause this market to resolve NO.
Wow that's a big jump.
Final update, then: I will begin to play the game at about 10 PM tomorrow night (in my timezone; about 21.5 hours from now.) At that point, I'm going to avoid posting anything on Manifold that could shift this market in either direction; namely, comparing my enjoyment of it to my enjoyment of BOTW in any way. (Keep in mind, the bar is set high - even if you see me going like "wow I LOVE tears of the kingdom!" or betting up the Metacritic user score market or something like that, it doesn't necessarily mean I prefer TOTK to BOTW.)
I don't think I've ever been this excited for the release of a video game before - but I'm trying to keep my expectations realistic. The game could live up to my hype, exceed it (which would be an incredible feat and probably lead to a very quick YES resolution), or not live up to it.
I have the next few weeks off thanks to my work schedule (I work for a community college), but I also play through games very slowly. I think the earliest this could resolve is around mid-late May, and I don't expect it to resolve until early June.
Oh, and: it's very funny that this market is at a similar % at the moment, because there is a high correlation.
@evergreenemily My prediction is solely based on my friend's report. He's been playing it for a week or so.
@ForrestTaylor Oh, oof...best of luck sleeping! I could barely sleep last night and that was way before the game was out...
It's preloaded, but I can't play it yet...this is gonna be a long six days.
On the bright side, "my life is on a broadly positive trajectory at the moment, and this will likely be even more true in May" aged even better than I expected it to. Saying that things are looking up is an understatement.
I won't say anything about my enjoyment of the game after I start playing it, as to not skew this market, but I do have one last thing to say to inform your bets on this market: I have updated the description (and added another YES criteria, though it's one that I think is unlikely to happen).
This is one market where I actually don't really mind people betting based on leaks, as long as they don't explain what the leaks are in the comments. If I see this market suddenly shoot up to like 80-90%, I'll just assume something in the leaks suggests I'll enjoy the game. Conversely, if I see it drop significantly, I'll assume there's something about the leaks that might decrease my enjoyment of the game.
@evergreenemily "I won't sell the shares I have," she said, and then that new trailer dropped and she sold all her NO shares. Holy wow.