This was - to my knowledge - the closest congressional election in the country in 2022. Incumbent Republican representative Lauren Boebert underperformed Trump's 2020 margin in the district by enough to very, very nearly lose the election in what would have been a massive upset.

There are reasons to expect a close election - Boebert is unpopular (which could draw Democratic donors to her opponent, since she appears defeatable, and could lead to a base-splitting primary), the district isn't exactly blood-red, and Colorado as a whole is moving rapidly to the left.

However, there are reasons to expect a reversion to the mean as well - Democratic campaign money might be focused on the presidential election instead of CO-03's House election, the district is still more red than purple, and the Republican nominee's coat-tails alongside a decrease in ticket splitting might mean the Republican candidate wins narrowly no matter what.

This market resolves as YES if a Democrat wins the general election to represent Colorado's third congressional district in 2024. Otherwise, this market resolves as NO.

More specifically, this market resolves as YES:

• If at least two of the Associated Press, Dave Wasserman ("I've seen enough" counts), and the New York Times call the election in favor of the Democratic Party's general election candidate.

• If a Democrat is winning a majority or plurality of the vote, and the candidate in second place concedes defeat.

• If neither of the above happens, but the final results from the Colorado Secretary of State show that a Democrat has officially won the seat.

If the election is called for a member of a different party, the Democratic candidate concedes, or official Secretary of State results show that a candidate from another party has officially won the seat, this resolves as NO. If the Democratic Party collapses before the 2024 elections and does not have a clear successor party, this automatically resolves as NO.

If something delays the congressional elections in 2024, whether that's in Colorado or nationwide, this market's close date will be adjusted to reflect that. If the elections are cancelled entirely for any reason - government collapse, civil war, invasion, gamma ray bursts or something - this market resolves N/A, and we all have bigger problems than prediction markets at that point.

This market closes when the general election polls in Colorado close: November 5, 2024 at 7:00 PM MST.