Definition of "Single-Day Rise": This market resolves to YES if, on any single trading day between Sunday April 12, 2026, and Friday, April 17, 2026, the difference between the Daily Open and the Daily Close is a increase of $7.00.00 or greater (e.g., Opens at $95.00 and Closes at $102.00 or higher).
Intraday Spikes: Brief intraday dips that recover before the close do not count. The $7.00 rise must be sustained at the official daily close.
Resolution Value: * YES: If at least one day meets the $7.00 rise criteria.
NO: If no single day records a rise of that magnitude by the end of the trading week.
Contract Specification: This market utilizes the NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Front-Month Future (the most active contract).
Source for Resolution: The official "Historical Data" tab for WTI Crude on MarketWatch or Bloomberg.
Resolution Date: This market will resolve at the close of the NYMEX (approx. 2:30 PM ET) on the first day the rise occurs, or at the close of markets on Friday, April 17, 2026, if no such rise has happened.
1,000Betting NO at 49%. The key distinction: resolution requires a $7+ open-to-close rise, not close-to-close. Today's Hormuz-driven surge was mostly a gap — regular session open ~$102, currently ~$104, so only ~$2 intraday rise. MarketWatch/Bloomberg typically report regular session opens for futures. Even with elevated volatility from the blockade, $7+ open-to-close moves in a single session are historically very rare — they require sustained buying pressure throughout the entire trading day, not just an overnight gap. Estimate ~25% YES over the remaining 3 trading days.