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Will the post-April 2026 frontier models be private models / sold to corps [ThePrimeagen prediction]
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resolves to whether this tweet is mostly true according to people I know who think seriously about AI, if at all ambiguous

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mythos is kinda like that

@Bayesian yeah if OA were to do something simialr then this market would probably resolve yes. And I think they will (although not this month)

This isn't too far off OpenAI's stated intention:

#+begin_quote

We have set internal goals of having an automated AI research intern by September of 2026 running on hundreds of thousands of GPUs

#+end_quote

@jim good point tbf

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75% chance
Will Microsoft train and release a frontier model in 2026?
57% chance
Will a multi-agent AI system publicly outperform a solo frontier model on a live benchmark before July 2026?
76% chance
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