Resolves YES if the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) reports a platinum supply deficit greater than 26 metric tonnes for the year 2025 in their 'Platinum Quarterly' report, typically published in early 2026. The WPIC's current forecast for 2025 estimates a deficit of 26 mt, with demand projected to decrease by 5% to 244 mt and supply expected to decline by 4% to 218 mt. This threshold is significant as it reflects ongoing supply constraints and demand dynamics, which could influence market prices and substitution trends between platinum and palladium. The outcome hinges on factors such as mining output, recycling rates, and investment demand fluctuations.
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1,000WPIC’s current best estimate for the 2025 deficit is about 21–22 tonnes versus the 26+ tonne threshold in this market; to flip this back above 26 t would require either a sizable negative supply shock (e.g., new South African disruptions) or a sharp demand upside surprise that has not yet appeared in their data.