Roman Shogdzhiev is an 11-year old chess prodigy and International Master from Russia. He recently achieved his second Grandmaster norm out of three needed, and his classical chess rating as of market creation is 2471, only 29 points away from the 2500 rating needed to claim the Grandmaster title. This market will resolve YES if Shogdzhiev is recognized as a Grandmaster by FIDE before he reaches the age of 12 years, 4 months and 25 days old, thereby becoming the youngest Grandmaster in chess history, and NO otherwise.
1,000Market was ~75% when I bet, I've got it ~32%. As far as I can find, he has one GM norm (Asian Championship, June) and FIDE has him at 2445 for October, not 2471. That means two more norms and +55 points in about 8 months. Possible, but he's gained ~30 points in the last 9. Happy to be corrected if there's a second norm I missed. https://ratings.fide.com/profile/55653537
Correction to my earlier comment: I said he had one GM norm. That's out of date. He made his second norm in the Serbian Super League this month, playing board one for Partizan with a 2662 performance (https://riakalm.ru/publishing/sport08/53171-vse-blizhe-k-mechte-roman-shogdzhiev-vypolnil-vtoruyu-normu-grossmejstera). So he needs one more norm plus 2500 by about late June 2027. I've moved up to ~58%. The market is ~70% after the last big YES.