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MANIFOLD
Will Israel attack Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, or Pakistan in 2027?
15
Ṁ100Ṁ874
2028
18%
Turkey
2%
Azerbaijan
4%
Armenia
5%
Turkmenistan
5%
Afghanistan
21%
Pakistan
44%
Other

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what just happened. it's not 2027

Why is this a dependent market? How does this resolve if Israel attacks none of these countries?

@UnspecifiedPerson @NickAllenc961 yeah this should ideally be N/A'd and recreated as an independent market.

oh lol market creator is banned

sold Ṁ111 YES

wow wild. do folks want to let this play out (and probably resolve to the first country they attack; N/A if none in 2027) or just cancel it now?

@Stralor there are a bunch of similar questions by the same creator with the same issue.

IMO they should all be N/A'ed now because if someone calculates the bayesian odds for any one country they'll be forced to keep spending mana to maintain their position even when people bet on another country.