Result "Yes": by March 27, 23:59:59 at Iran Standard Time (IRST), which is UTC+03:30, Iran launches the 100th wave of missile/drone strike under "Operation True Promise 4". This also means that if the number of waves is greater than 100, it is still the case of "yes".
Result "No": when it is not the case of "yes".
Decision will be made until Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announces their strike for March 27 local time.
All time is in 2026.
We are currently on Wave 84 on March 27.
Creator's Current Prediction for reference: Wave 85 by End of March 27. (Made from a linear regression estimate from data for past 5 days) Be aware that this estimate contain risks of extrapolatation.
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@traders I will be updating the waves numbers everyday above in the discriptions. Also, please check out the the new market below, with more choices in prediction and more fluidity.
@NBonev Agree, this is gonna come close though. When I created the market, IRGC launch about 5 waves per day. That gave me March 27 to be just about a little more than 100th waves. But now, their pace seem to slow down a bit further to 3-4 waves per day since their many launch infrastructure is damaged, which gave us 18-24 waves in the next 7 days, and it is 71st wave now. Therefore, prediction would be 89th to 95th if it increases linearly with the rate of increase currently.