Resolution Criteria

By the specified deadline, the market resolves YES if Iran's armed forces have carried out at least the xth wave of missile and drone strikes under Operation True Promise 4. Resolution is determined by official IRGC announcements of wave numbers. The market resolves NO if the xth wave has not been launched by the deadline at 23:59:59 IRST (UTC+03:30).

Considerations

The rate of ballistic missile launches by Iran declined from the beginning of the war to March 4, with analysts pointing to depletion of Iranian missile and launcher stores as well as a strategy of rationing for a longer war. The pace of wave announcements has varied significantly, with multiple waves sometimes occurring within single days. Traders should monitor official IRGC statements via Iranian state media for wave number announcements.

(Creator of this market will not bet on this market.)

(New answers might be added in the future.)

(Due date would be postponed as more answers were added.)