Resolution Criteria
By the specified deadline, the market resolves YES if Iran's armed forces have carried out at least the xth wave of missile and drone strikes under Operation True Promise 4. Resolution is determined by official IRGC announcements of wave numbers. The market resolves NO if the xth wave has not been launched by the deadline at 23:59:59 IRST (UTC+03:30).
Decision will be made based on what Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announces their strike for the date in local time.
(New answers might be added in the future.)
(Due date would be postponed as more answers were added.)
Update 2026-03-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Each answer/wave option will be resolved as soon as it becomes clear, rather than waiting for the market's overall close date.
Update 2026-03-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional resolution conditions:
If the war ends, all unresolved YES predictions will resolve NO
If Iran changes the operation name, all unresolved YES predictions will resolve NO
If the US withdraws but Israel remains in conflict, predictions will not resolve unless the operation name changes from "True Promise 4"
Update 2026-03-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A wave counts as launched on the date it started, even if it finishes after midnight. For example, a wave starting on March 23 but ending on March 24 (local time) is counted as launched on March 23.
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@traders If one wave is launched but not finished in midnight by the date, it still counts as if it was launched. For example, wave 77 start in March 23 but end in March 24 local time, therefore wave 77 will be counted as launched in March 23.
@traders If war ended, every prediction that have not resolved yes will resolve no. If Iran changed the name of operation, every prediction that hasn’t resolved yes will resolve no. If US withdraw from the war but Israel are still in conflict, the predictions will not resolve unless the name of operation “true promise 4” is changed.