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MANIFOLD
Will I earn at least $25 per hour grading USA(J)MO?
18
Ṁ100Ṁ3.7k
2027
32%
chance

I am a grader for USA(J)MO. Let M be the amount of money that I earn from this (pre-tax). I will estimate the hours spent H as follows:

  • For each problem P I grade, using a period of uninterrupted grading near the middle of my grading experience for that problem, I will estimate R_P, the amount of papers that I grade per hour in an ideal setting. These will be rounded to the nearest tenth.

  • I will sum the amount of papers I graded divided by R_P over all problems P.

The reason that I am using this procedure is that I often grade in non-ideal conditions (e.g. while eating, while in class, etc.) which decrease the amount of papers I grade per hour, and it would be unfair to weight this time equally.

  • Finally, I will add 1/6 hour (10 minutes) per conflict that I am involved in and that I take nonzero effort in resolving. (These occur when I assign a different score from another grader, and we need to agree on a score.)

This market resolves YES if M >= 25*H. Otherwise, it resolves NO.

After USA(J)MO scores are released, I will release the the set of all problems I graded, and for each problem the value R_P, the amount of papers I graded, and the number of conflicts I had. This will be when H will be computed. M will be computed (and the market resolved) at the time that MAA pays me or EOY 2026, whichever occurs first.

Disclaimer: The monetary payment had little impact on my decision to be a grader, and has little impact on how much I decide to grade.

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opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 32% order

@JiaheLiu very funny

@traders

Updates to the market:

  • H will be computed when scores release.

  • M will be computed (and the market resolved) at the time that MAA pays me or EOY 2026, whichever occurs first. (Of course, if the latter occurs first, it is very likely that the market resolves NO.)

bought Ṁ20 YES

@ZongshuWu why are you betting NO so aggressively?

@jatloe xooks

@jatloe because it's free mana

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 30% order

@ZongshuWu @wjz large limit order up at 30%, I guess...

@jatloe that would just be losing your mana

bought Ṁ10 YES

@a_clown go ahead and buy my order then

Free mana