I will select 50 component companies of the S&P 500 at random at the end of the year and check whether they enforce AI use by a large (roughly, more than half) portion of their employees. I will look for a statement from the company, leaked internal documents, or reporting from a major news journal.

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 19% chance (15 traders, as of May 20, 2026).

Will half of the S&P 500 enforce wide adoption of AI tools by employees by EOY 2026?

Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?

36% chance

OpenAI has AI CEO by EOY 2026?

2% chance

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

20% chance

Will there be a trend of companies removing "AI-assisted" features from their products before the end of 2026?

7% chance

Tesla buys xAI by EOY2026?

6% chance

Will AI write 75%+ of social media view-generating posts (default to Twitter) by EOY 2026?

9% chance

Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?

58% chance

Will JPMorgan force their employees to use generative AI for analyses, reports or other work in 2026?

21% chance

Will the "AI Longbets Turing Test by 2029" market go above 80% by EOY 2026?

62% chance

Will AI be able to fully generate excel-based, 3-statement financial valuation models on a public stock by end of 2026?

85% chance