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MANIFOLD
Will Futarchy Chess end in a draw?
12
Ṁ400Ṁ237
2080
61%
chance

Referring to this game: https://manifold.markets/MaxE/who-will-win-futarchy-chess?r=UXE

If it becomes clear for any reason that the game has not legally (according to FIDE’s rules of chess) ended but will not continue, this market will resolve N/A.

As of now, the rules of Futarchy chess appear to prohibit agreed draws. If this rule is ever reversed and an agreed draw occurs, this market will resolve YES.

In general, the rules and progression of the game will be governed by that game’s creator. This includes if the creator ever changes his mind about rules.

  • Update 2026-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The following draw conditions (beyond agreed draws) also resolve this market YES:

    • Stalemate

    • Threefold repetition

    • 50 moves without captures or pawn advances

    • Insufficient material for mate

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@Qq the only mention of YES criteria is this:

As of now, the rules of Futarchy chess appear to prohibit agreed draws. If this rule is ever reversed and an agreed draw occurs, this market will resolve YES.

I'm assuming the other obvious ways to force a draw (stalemate, 3-move repetition, 50 moves without captures or pawn advances, and insufficient material for mate) are tacitly also YES criteria, correct?

@deagol yes, should have been more explicit

bought Ṁ19 NO

too much incentive not to draw imo