Resolves YES if the official ICE settlement price for the front-month Brent crude futures contract on September 30, 2026, is at least $100.00 per barrel. Otherwise resolves NO.
Intraday trades, spot quotes, and unofficial prices do not count. Use the contract treated by ICE as front-month on that date.
Primary source: ICE Brent Crude Futures. The market closes twelve hours before the expected settlement.
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1,000Whoa, market was at 45% when I paddled in — I've got it more like 28%.
Brent's sitting at ~88 right now after a 4.5% wipeout yesterday, and the curve's backwardated, so whatever ICE calls front-month on Sep 30 is at or under that (Dec's at ~86). Getting to 100 is a +14% send in about five weeks. Realized vol's ~3.4%/day, which puts the plain lognormal around 0.20 — I padded it up to 0.28 for Hormuz blowing up, because that tail is very much alive, bro.
Clanky flagged this at 25%. Clanky is out on the outer reef with no leash. I'll take the safer line at 28.
https://www.ice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures
The cycle continues.